Module 03 — Fundamental analysis and tokenomics¶
Goal: learn to evaluate whether a crypto asset has real value or is just hot air. Fundamental analysis answers "WHAT do I buy?"; technical analysis (module 4) answers "WHEN?".
🔊 Listen to this module (Spanish audio, 11 min 13 s)
Narrated version of the full module — perfect for reviewing while you do something else.
1. The fundamental questions¶
Before investing in any project, answer:
- What problem does it solve, and who cares? If the answer is "it's like X but faster," be skeptical: liquidity and the network effect matter more than speed.
- Does it need a token? Many projects add a token just to raise money. If the product would work just the same without a token, the token captures no value.
- Who is behind it? A public team with a track record vs. anonymous founders. Serious investors vs. none.
- Does it have real users? Verifiable on-chain metrics, not roadmap promises.
- How does the protocol make money, and how much of that reaches the token?
2. Tokenomics: the token's economy¶
The most ignored topic by beginners, and the most decisive in the medium term.
First things first: price is NOT the same as size¶
Before talking about supply, you need to understand Market Cap (market capitalization), because that's what truly measures how much a project "is worth":
Market Cap = price per token × circulating supply
Think of it like a company: buying 1 share of a small company at $0.10 does not make it cheaper than 1 share of another at $500. What matters is how much the whole company is worth, not the price of a single share. With tokens it's identical.
Numerical example:
| Coin A | Coin B | |
|---|---|---|
| Price per token | $0.001 | $50 |
| Circulating supply | 100 billion | 1 million |
| Market Cap | $100M | $50M |
Coin A, with the "lower" price, is worth DOUBLE what Coin B is worth. It's more expensive, not cheaper. The price per token, on its own, tells you nothing.
Beginner trap
"This token costs $0.0001; if it reaches $1, I'll get rich." For a token with 100 billion supply to "reach $1," it would have to be worth 100 billion dollars — more than almost any project in the world. The price per token, without looking at the supply, means NOTHING.
And this connects directly to what comes next: more supply = each token is worth less for the same market cap. That's why inflation and unlocks dilute your share. 👇
FDV: the price you don't see yet¶
Market Cap only counts the tokens circulating today. But there's another figure that counts ALL the tokens that will ever exist:
FDV (Fully Diluted Valuation) = price per token × max supply
The key ratio is to compare the two. If the Market Cap is low but the FDV is much higher, it means almost all the supply is NOT circulating yet and will be released bit by bit (the infamous unlocks).
Numerical example:
| Token X | |
|---|---|
| Price per token | $2 |
| Circulating supply | 100M tokens |
| Market Cap | $200M (looks small and attractive) |
| Max supply | 1,000M tokens |
| FDV | $2,000M |
Only 10% of the supply is circulating. The remaining 90% (team, VCs, future emissions) will hit the market over the coming years. And here's the trap: for YOU not to lose money, those 900M new tokens need new buyers who don't exist today. That's structural sell pressure that sinks the price even if the project is good and has users.
Practical rule for the beginner
Always look at the Market Cap / FDV ratio — CoinGecko and CoinMarketCap already give it to you pre-calculated. If less than 30% of the supply is circulating, assume heavy future dilution and be skeptical of the "low market cap": that number is a mirage if the other 70%+ is waiting to hit the market.
That's why the unlock schedule matters so much (we cover it right below 👇).
Supply¶
- Circulating supply: tokens on the market today.
- Total/max supply: those that will exist.
- Inflation: are more being issued? At what rate? A token with 20% annual inflation needs 20% new demand each year just to avoid falling.
- Vesting and unlocks: the team and early investors usually have locked tokens that get released on a schedule. Every large unlock = sell pressure. Check schedules on tokenomist.ai or similar.
Distribution¶
- What % does the team/VCs hold? >40% among insiders = bad sign.
- A fair launch (Bitcoin: 0% pre-mined) or a private sale to VCs at a price 50x lower than yours?
Value capture¶
- Does the token receive part of the protocol's fees? Is there a token burn? Is there staking with real yield (paid from revenue) or inflationary yield (paid by printing more tokens — that's dilution in disguise)?
3. On-chain and protocol metrics¶
| Metric | What it measures | Where to see it |
|---|---|---|
| TVL (Total Value Locked) | Capital deposited in a DeFi protocol | DefiLlama |
| Mcap/TVL ratio | The protocol's "price" vs. the capital it manages | DefiLlama |
| Fees/Revenue | The protocol's real income | DefiLlama (fees tab) |
| Active addresses | Real users | Artemis, Token Terminal |
| DEX volume | Real trading activity | DefiLlama |
| Stablecoin supply on the network | Capital "ready to invest" on that chain | DefiLlama |
DefiLlama is free and is your best friend. Token Terminal treats protocols like companies (P/E ratios, etc.).
4. Analysis of BTC and ETH (the two big ones)¶
Bitcoin¶
- Thesis: store of value, fixed supply, the most decentralized and battle-tested asset.
- Drivers: institutional adoption (spot ETFs since 2024), global macro liquidity (interest rates, money supply), halvings.
- Its own metrics: BTC dominance, MVRV (market value vs. realized value), exchange reserves.
Ethereum¶
- Thesis: the settlement layer of the on-chain economy; ETH is used to pay gas, part of each fee is burned (EIP-1559), and it can be staked.
- Drivers: DeFi/NFT activity, L2 rollups (Arbitrum, Base, Optimism), staking yield.
- Risk: competition (Solana) and the question of whether the L2s capture the value instead of ETH.
5. Macro: crypto doesn't live in a bubble¶
Crypto is a risk asset: it correlates with the Nasdaq, suffers when interest rates rise, and expands when there's global liquidity.
- Interest rates (Fed/ECB): expensive money → less appetite for risk → crypto goes down.
- DXY (dollar index): a strong dollar is usually a headwind.
- Regulatory events: ETF approvals (bullish), SEC lawsuits, MiCA in Europe.
You don't need to be a macroeconomist; you do need to know which regime you're in (is liquidity expanding or contracting?).
6. Immediate red flags (discard and move on)¶
- Absurd APYs (>50% "guaranteed") with no explanation of where the yield comes from.
- Anonymous team + freshly launched token + aggressive influencer marketing.
- A whitepaper that's all buzzwords and no mechanism.
-
50% of the supply in a few wallets (check the explorer).
- An endless roadmap with no usable product.
- "You get paid for recruiting people" → pyramid scheme, no exceptions.
Exercises¶
- On DefiLlama, compare Aave and Uniswap: TVL, 30d fees, Mcap/TVL ratio. Which one "earns" more per unit of market cap?
- Pick a token from the top 50 and look up its unlock schedule. What % of the supply unlocks over the next 12 months?
- Full analysis of a project (template):
- Problem it solves / does it need a token? / team / tokenomics (supply, distribution, value capture) / metrics (TVL, fees, users) / risks / verdict in 3 lines.
Save it in
notas/analisis-<project>.md. - Look at the current BTC dominance and its 5-year chart. What does it tell you about which phase of the cycle we're in?
Checkpoint ✅¶
- Why is a staking yield paid with the token's own inflation not real income?
- What is an unlock, and why does the vesting schedule matter?
- What does TVL measure, and what limitations does it have as a metric?
- Why does crypto fall when interest rates rise?
- Name 4 red flags that immediately rule out a project.
- Why is a token with a low market cap but a very high FDV dangerous for whoever buys today?
→ Next: Module 04 — Technical analysis